The problem with trying to guess what the hot cards are for the newly officialized and already supported (in PT Philidelphia) format is the same problem one faces when holding a newborn and trying to figure out what they're going to be when they grow up; it's far too open-ended to say with any absolute certainty. We have exactly one event to base our metagame on, an event held using unified constructed rules; (meaning that each team was limited to four copies of a card between them, rather than the normal 4 per deck) god knows what the decklists would look like without the restriction. And to dig the hole deeper, the banned list has changed since said event, a banned list that basically took the best cards from each players deck and said, "No Jace, No Stoneforge. P.S. STILL no affinity)
Deck Lists:http://http//www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/mtgoccup11/thu#1
Now don't get me wrong, I like this banned list; if I died to a friggin' Scapeshift, I think I might have to headbutt somebody in the face, but it makes my job one hell of a lot harder.
Lands
The only thing we can really be certain of is lands. Top-tier decks need consistent mana or else they aren't top tier decks. I've said it before, but it bears repeating, the Ravnica shock lands and the Zendikar fetch lands are going to comprise the backbone of Modern manabases. The only thing separating Stomping Ground from a Taiga is a measley two life, and the fact that they still have the land types makes them dangerous, particularly with tutors like Fetchlands and Wood Elves or activated abilities that say "Whenever an Island etc." People seem to think its a weakness that Modern only has access to enemy-colored fetchlands; it's not. An Arid Mesa or a Misty Rainforest can find a Temple Garden in a G/W deck as easily as a Windswept Heath. These lands will allow Modern decks to function just as easily as any of their Legacy or Vintage counterparts and should be expected to skyrocket in price very soon.
Decks.
So what can we expect from Modern so far? The Metagame is still incredibly nebulous, and there's always room for innovation, but I don't think it's too early to start drawing projections. I may be biased here, Elves are my favorite tribe and for the third time since I've benn writing these articles, I LOVE TRIBAL. Granted, it lost its greatest drawing engine in Glimpse of Nature, but an Aggro deck that still has that much card advantage and has the ability to generate exactly one crapton of mana per turn is not to be overlooked. In addition, its an amazing option for budget players, firstly as its mono-colored, which allows you to circumvent the land issue we previously discussed while still having a reliable manabase, and secondly because the backbone of the deck is almost entirely common and uncommon. Dredge still appears to be a viable option. Yeah, you lost Dread Return, guess you'll just have to cry into that horde of zombie tokens you paid nothing for while you Zombify and Makeshift Mannequin like everybody else. Jund seems to have made it through the updated bannings relatively unscathed, and even without Bitterblossom, Faeries seems poised to make you wonder why you left your fly swatter at home all over again. And never underestimate the possibility of Legacy favorites like Zoo to be ported over to Modern with minor, if any tweaks. Keep an eye out for cards that fit into these archetypes as suport for the format grows.
I'm too lazy to think of a closing this week. Go away. -X
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