What's the deal with Magic 2015?

Hi Everyone!

For a while now, I have wondered what's wrong with Magic 2015. I don't get it. It seems like it's under performing from a financial perspective at least.

It didn't make any sense to me, I have this theory called, "the shiny new thing theory" (just a disclaimer: it is only a theory at this point and I am still researching to perfect the assumptions of the theory). The theory basically says that when something comes out on Magic Online people flock to it and everyone loses interest in other things and runs to the shiny new thing. This has been the first time the theory doesn't seem to hold water. There is one point that I think is worth mentioning regarding the SNT not applying this time. Magic Online has never had vintage available online before. I suppose it's fair to say that shiny new things do not trump Vintage legal powerhouse cards like the Power 9 and all the restricted cards.

I thought it couldn't be that simple. That's not very exciting, and really overly simple for an economy with the complexity of Magic Online. There must be more than that to it. Vintage Masters is just so popular that it's cannibalizing sales of Magic 2015....Seriously, that's it? Nope.

I

thought there's no way it's just Vintage Masters is soooooo great (it's pretty awesome, but not awesome enough to get me to forget about Standard). I looked at the top 8 decklists from Pro Tour Magic 2015 and found my answers. The only cards in many of the decks from Magic 2015 were land, specifically the enemy color pain lands, and Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth.

So what does it all mean? At this point I think it only means that Magic 2015 just doesn't add a lot to standard. Wizards has been changing cards in the Core Sets to let standard change from the beginning of a block to the time a block rotates out of standard.

I'm sure you're asking by now, what does this mean for my investments (or upcoming trade decisions)?

Well, back in the old days (read: any set before Magic 2015), we could conceivably predict that the initial hyped cards had dropped to normal values and the cards were in general the lowest they'd be before the Standard Pro Tour Qualifier season (the time that you sell) about two weeks after the online release date. This time it's a little different. I think the happenings of Vintage Masters and the minimal impact on standard are slowing everything down, but not from the beginning of the cycle, it seems to have sped up the "chase" cards dropping in price and then the market is staying lower than it probably should be under normal circumstances.

I think a lot of the cards have deflated values and it's a great time if you want to call some shots and try investing based on a card being good. I don't typically recommend that, because it's just gambling on deck builders using the card you picked in major tournaments.

On the other hand, if you're investing based on the cyclical nature of cards in standard, I'm recommending that it's too early to jump in right now. There are a lot of rares that seem "really good" for $1 but they could see no play and drop to a nickel, and you will have lost 95% of your money, and based on my experience, that's not a good thing.

For now I'm staying out of Magic 2015 until I'm confidant that prices aren't high on bulk rares in hopes of picking the non-bulk rares that are low right now.



Mtg Confidant