Four weeks ago we discussed Hypergeometric Distrubtion and introduced this series. We also discovered that if you run four copies of a card in a 60-card deck you have a 40% chance of having at least one copy in your opening hand.
This week we are talking about 1-ofs. Single copies of a card in a deck is generally a mistake. The reason is that there will be many games of Magic where you never see the card. If you can win without ever seeing the card in a game, why is the card even in your deck? You should just increase the number of copies of some other card.
The Hypergeometric Distrubtion calculator from part 1 shows us that the probability of having your single card in your opening hand is only 11,6%.
So when do legitimately run a single copy of a card in your 60-card deck?
You can search for the card
A good example of this is the dreaded 1-land-spy deck in Pauper. It needs only one land because it can search for that lonely forest easily. Here is an example deck list: http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/1-land-combo/
In the deck mentioned above, 1-land-spy in Pauper there is an example of this as well. You only need one kill card, Haunting Misery, because you will draw your entire deck and can then kill with it.
You can draw your entire deck
It is similar to being able to search for the card.
Your card is restricted
Congratulations, you are playing Vintage. You are awesome.
You really want to run 5 copies of a card
If you have a card that is a 4-of and you then want just one additional copy that means that the second card has to be a 1-of.
You need to run a single copy because of mana curve considerations
I think this is less likely to come up than it was for 3-ofs or 2-ofs. Stay away from 1-ofs if you can.
Every year on the occasion of Christmas time Wizards print a special card given only to its employees and sanctioned games stores. This year is no different and holiday promo is Goblin Sleight Ride. How could we get one? Try eBay, it is listed for circa 50 USD. However, buy it only if you are a true collector. If you are thinking of investment better purchase other staples. The price of holidays promo is steady and no handsome profits here. The card is silver-bordered and is illegal in a sanctioned play.
Round two of the third season of the Pauper Gauntlet is over and eight decks have been eliminated during double elimation. Round three has started and another two decks have fallen. 68 decks remain.
Round two is over!
If you read further than this, you will get results spoiled. That is probably why you are here, though.
Catch the matches when they are published on Twitter: @MagicGathStrat
Watch the feature matches on youtube: youtube.com/magicgatheringstrat
Also make sure you subscribe to magicgatheringstrat2 on YouTube for more matches.
Ok, lets get into details.
All the matches of round two:
Mono Black Land Destruction is outresourced by Illusory Tricks 1-2 Rakdos Vampires defeats Golgari Delve Glass Cannon Red falls to White Metalcraft 0-2 Suicide the Painless runs into another mirror match (almost) but the opponent quits. The deck also faces bad press for its tasteless name and will return during round 3 as Pauper Aristocrats. Livind End is crushed by Angler Delver 0-2
Tortured Madness is defeated by Pestilence 1-2
BorosKitty Initiated defeats MBC splashing white 2-1 in a very tight match Dragon Delve lost to RUG Tron and was eliminated from the Pauper Gauntlet despite being able to put a 11/9 flyer vigilance Gurmag Angler into play. Turns out that Fangren Marauder just gains too many life. Sultai Delve defeats Izzet Wizards 2-0 Crocajund defeats Illusory Tricks 2-1. With so many people playing Tricks in the practice rooms I am starting to believe that people actually read magicgatheringstrat.com. Tricks was the runner-up in season one of the Pauper Gauntlet and is a deck brewed by my friend Bava.
UB Justice Control was defeated by Blue Bichinho (the flying blue swarm) 1-2 Burn defeats Sultai Exhume 2-0. Cheaty Morph is defeated by Nightsky Mimic 0-2 Familiars defeat Azorius Control 2-0 1-land-spy ran into a control deck and could not go off. 0-2
Snow Go defeats Orzhov Removal 2-0 Tortured Toolbox defeats Mono Black 2-0 Rebel Grind defeats Boros Landfall 2-0 Eggs defeats Illusory Tricks 2-1 Goblin Storm Combo goes off against Abzan Lifegain and does 65 points of damage in one turn! The match ends 2-1 to the combo deck.
Mono Red Land Destruction is defeated by Selesnya Vigilance 0-2 MBC defeats Mono Blue 2-0
22 matches played in round two. The final score was 13-9.
The following eight decks are eliminated (but can be voted back after round four if you really miss one of them): Tortured Madness, Living End, Glass Cannon Red, Mono Black Land Destruction, Dragon Delve, UB Justice Control, Cheaty Morph, 1-land-spy and Mono Red Land Destruction.
Round three has started!
Round three is played in the Tournament Practice room and if a deck loses it is elmiinated from the Pauper Gauntlet (unless voted back after round 4).
Affinity lost to Dimir Teachings 1-2 and is eliminated. Burn defeats AzoriusKitty 2-0 Encroaching Blight is defeated by White Metalcraft 1-2 Kuldotha Mardu defeats RUG Tron 2-1. MBC defeats BorosKitty 2-1
Hi Everyone,
Wizards says they are making changes to their tournament coverage for the upcoming year. The changes basically say there will only be one single broadcast that covers the entire weekend. This sounds great because I like watching the formats I like. Sometimes there are two GPs that are different formats and the format I don't like is being broadcast.
I think the real reason they are doing this is to have a more coherent way to broadcast their tournaments. It's difficult to have to find out where the tournament they want to see is showing. The benefit for Wizards is they can show various formats and try to get me interested in them while they have me as a captive audience waiting for the format I actually like. It sounds like it's not going to work because it's going to be too much time away from what people tuned in for and will likely end up watching something else if the content doesn't keep their interest.
Hi Everyone,
I'm not sure if you all heard but the Expeditions for Oath of the gatewatch were leaked. It's going to be the 10 filter lands that are available in Modern and Ancient Tomb, Wasteland, Dust Bowl, Strip Mine, and a few others. They are on all the spoiler sites if you haven't seen them already.
I think the idea of Expeditions is great. They allow Wizards to reprint a card without driving the value of existing versions into the ground and is a sweet special edition to collect. But, what's with some of the choices? Kor Haven and Dust Bowl.
I can't even tell you what Kor Haven does, and Dust Bowl is some kind of bad Tectonic Edge effect (not exactly sure to be honest). I think including this kind of card makes it so all the expeditions aren't good, it makes it like opening a foil junk mythic, it's just a disappointment.
The idea is great, but the execution (like everything Wizards does, I'm specifically looking at Magic Online) just wasn't as good as it could have been.
Three weeks ago we discussed Hypergeometric Distrubtion and introduced this series. We also discovered that if you run four copies of a card in a 60-card deck you have a 40% chance of having at least one copy in your opening hand.
This week we are talking about 2-ofs. As an example we will be using Rolling Thunder in Pauper RUG Tron.
The Hypergeometric Distrubtion calculator from part 1 shows us that the probability of having at least one Rolling Thunder in your opening hand (if you run two Thunders) of 7 cards is 22%.
Here we have to consider another factor. By turn 6 you have a 5% chance of drawing multiple copies of your 32of card. This is significantly less than a 3-of card (12%) which is an important factor for cutting down to two copies of a card like Rolling Thunder.
So when do you run 2 copies of a card in your deck?
You want to be sure that you can draw one copy of the card in the midgame or the lategame
This card is good and you want to see a copy of if the game goes long.
You do want one (and often exactly one) Rolling Thunder to stabilize the game or finish the opponent.
This is the major case for running a 2-of. Grim Harvest in UB Trinket Control.
Be aware that if you go down to one copy there will be many games where you never see the card at all, making it quite random. We will talk more about that next week.
Getting the second copy of your card in hand suffers from diminishing returns
As stated above the chance of drawing a second copy of your card increases by 150% if you run three copies of your card. If there is any sort of diminishing returns from your card (as with our Grim Harvest and Rolling Thunder examples above) it is a significant mistake to run three copies of the card. Run two copies.
You really want to run 6 copies of a card
If you have a card that is a 4-of and you then want two additional copies that means that the second card has to be a 2-of.
You need to run 2 copies for mana curve considerations
If your mana curve needs exactly two cards of this cost you have a good case for a 2-of.
Getting the second copy of your card in hand is not a total disaster
If you draw your second Rolling Thunder after you have saved yourself in the midgame you can use that one as a finisher or you can hit the opponent twice. If the second copy of the card is totally meaningless even in the lategame you should consider cutting the second copy.
I have a hard time thinking of an example of this. Generally, 1-ofs that are not searchable are mistakes and should be 2-ofs.
Round one is over!
If you read further than this, you will get results spoiled. That is probably why you are here, though.
Catch the matches when they are published on Twitter: @MagicGathStrat
Watch the feature matches on youtube: youtube.com/magicgatheringstrat
Also make sure you subscribe to magicgatheringstrat2 on YouTube for more matches.
Ok, lets get into details.
These were the final matches of round one:
Elves took down Esper Control 2-0 Snow Go faced Bant Fog in a very skill intensive matchup. I am sure the more experienced pilot would win on either side. I was not the more experienced pilot and lost 0-2. In fact, this was the very first Pauper Gauntlet match ever that I was timed out and lost by the clock. Check out the video above if you want to be boooored Tortured Toolbox lost to Domain 0-2 Land-o-derm defeated Encroaching Blight 2-0
Turbo Exhume defeated RB Madness 2-1 Evil Allies ran into a quitter BUG Profilerators saw the worst misplay of the Gauntlet so far but then the opponent quit after winning the first duel.
78 matches played. The final score was 56-22.
Round two has started!
Any deck that loses in round two is eliminated from the Pauper Gauntlet (unless voted back by you, the readers, after round four).
Dragon Delve lost to RUG Tron and was eliminated from the Pauper Gauntlet despite being able to put a 11/9 flyer vigilance Gurmag Angler into play. Turns out that Fangren Marauder just gains too many life. Sultai Delve defeats Izzet Wizards 2-0 Crocajund defeats Illusory Tricks 2-1. With so many people playing Tricks in the practice rooms I am starting to believe that people actually read magicgatheringstrat.com. Tricks was the runner-up in season one of the Pauper Gauntlet and is a deck brewed by my friend Bava. UB Justice Control was defeated by Blue Bichinho (the flying blue swarm) 1-2 Burn defeats Sultai Exhume 2-0. Cheaty Morph is defeated by Nightsky Mimic 0-2 Familiars defeat Azorius Control 2-0 1-land-spy ran into a control deck and could not go off. 0-2 Snow Go defeats Orzhov Removal 2-0 Tortured Toolbox defeats Mono Black 2-0
Rebel Grind defeats Boros Landfall 2-0 Eggs defeats Illusory Tricks 2-1 Goblin Storm Combo goes off against Abzan Lifegain and does 65 points of damage in one turn! The match ends 2-1 to the combo deck. Mono Red Land Destruction is defeated by Selesnya Vigilance 0-2 MBC defeats Mono Blue 2-0
Seven matches remain in round two. So far we have lost the following five decks: Dragon Delve, UB Justice Control, Cheaty Morph, 1-land-spy and Mono Red Land Destruction. 73 decks remain in the Pauper Gauntlet S03.
Round two ends on December 22nd and round three will be going on over the Holidays and will be a 3 or 4 week round.
Schedule of flashback drafts for next five months:
Triple Eighth Edition: December 30, 2015 to January 6, 2016
Triple Mirrodin: January 6, 2016 to January 13, 2016
2 Mirrodin and 1 Darksteel: January 13, 2016 to January 20, 2016
Mirrodin, Darksteel, and Fifth Dawn: January 20, 2016 to January 27, 2016
Triple Champions of Kamigawa: February 17, 2016 to February 24, 2016
2 Champions of Kamigawa and 1 Betrayers of Kamigawa: February 24 to March 2, 2016
Champions, Betrayers, and Saviors of Kamigawa: March 2, 2016 to March 9, 2016
Triple Ninth Edition: March 9, 2016 to March 16, 2016
Triple Ravnica: March 16, 2016 to March 23, 2016
2 Ravnica and 1 Guildpact: March 23, 2016 to March 30, 2016
Ravnica, Guildpact, and Dissension: March 30, 2016 to April 6, 2016
Triple Coldsnap: April 6, 2016 to April 13, 2016
Triple Time Spiral: May 4, 2016 to May 11, 2016
2 Time Spiral and 1 Planar Chaos: May 11, 2016 to May 18, 2016
Time Spiral, Planar Chaos, and Future Sight: May 18, 2016 to May 25, 2016
Triple Tenth Edition: May 25, 2016 to June 1, 2016 Note it down in your calendar to not to be surprised why some card's price is declining in particular weeks. On the other hand, there will be no Mercadian Masques or other much older drafts soon, so price of for instance Rishadan Port may reach new heights.
I have seen a lot of debate over Stoneforge Mystic being too good for Modern. It's certainly powerful. It sees play in Legacy on a regular basis.
Is it too good for Modern? Maybe, but I think probably not.
Let's look at what it does in best case scenario. Turn 2 it fetches a Batterskull and puts it into play (can't be countered) on turn 3.
So it's a Loxodon Smiter with lifelink that dies to virtually any removal on turn two. The batterskull can be discarded easily to discard spells before it can be put into play by the opponent.
Then once it's in play it dies to anything that kills black creatures, anything that "blinks" it, and anything that kills artifacts.
Yeah, lifelink on Smiter would make it very good, but not too good.
How does our turn 3 4/4 lifelink that dies to a lot of stuff compare to the format. I'm going to admit, it's good against creature decks. I think control decks would often have to 2 for 1 themselves to kill the token and have to deal with the artifact eventually and the token would be back in a couple turns. Most combo decks won't care about the Batterskull.
Is it really too good? It's better than what we have, but a lot of decks in Modern are more powerful than a turn 3 lifelink 4/4. How about Amulet Bloom, it kills on turn 3 some of the time and could do so through a batterskull.
I don't think it will be too good but it will be popular. Stoneforge will probably be seen as much online as Twin and Pod were seen when it was clearly the best decks.
Two weeks ago we discussed Hypergeometric Distrubtion and introduced this series. We also discovered that if you run four copies of a card in a 60-card deck you have a 40% chance of having at least one copy in your opening hand.
This week we are talking about 3-ofs. As an example we will be using Spire Golem in Pauper Delver decks.
The Hypergeometric Distrubtion calculator from part 1 shows us that the probability of having at least one Spire Golem in your opening hand (if you run three Golems) of 7 cards is 31,5%.
Here we have to consider another factor. By turn 6 you have a 12% chance of drawing multiple copies of your 3-of card. This means that a big finisher or something for the late game is probably not a card you want 3-of (Rolling Thunder in Pauper RUG Tron is a good example here).
So when do you run 3 copies of a card in your deck?
You want to be sure that you can draw one copy of the card in most games
This card is good and you want to see a copy of it in almost all games you play.
This also implies that you don't want as many copies of the card as possible because then you would just run 4-of. You really want to run 7 copies of a card
It is hard to think of a situation where you don't want 8 copies of a card but exactly 7 but those situations may occur. In this case you have found a second card that is similar enough to the first card (that you have 4-of) so you are including 3 more.
Your 4th copy is in the sideboard as a wish target
This is a corner case but if your deck can fetch cards from the sideboard the fourth copy needs to be there to be fetched. You need to run 3 copies for mana curve considerations
If your mana curve needs exactly three cards of this cost you have a good case for a 3-of.
This includes situations where you have to cut down to 60 cards from 61 and something just has to go. Remember, though, that the likelihood of seeing the card in your opening hand has been reduced by almost a third.
If having more than one copy of the card in your starting hand is a problem, consider running three copies of the card
We mentioned this last week. If a card is critical to your strategy but would be problematic in multiples in your opening hand, you should not run four copies of the card but go for three.
A good example of this is Armadillo Cloak in Pauper Hexproof decks. This card is an excellent card for the deck but having two cloaks in your starting hand will make you very slow. Thus, do not run four of this card.
We have just released ML Bot version 10.61. The update fixes a MTGO crash that the bot was unable to handle and also a problem with the trading interface - when the name of the customer was longer than 20 characters, the bot could not set the 'List View' properly.
Since Wizards announced their new Grand Prix Promo for the upcoming year there's been some speculation that it may be unbanned in Modern. The price shot up from $2 to about $5 in a day or two last week.
Is this going to happen? Maybe. When we look at the infinite combos that happen on turn four Stoneforge Mystic isn't that powerful. Can Stoneforge get anything that will win the game on turn 4? Nope.
I think the banning was a show of fear, just like Bitterblossom and Wild Nacatl that they were overpowered in standard and they don't want Modern being ruined by these cards.
I think Stoneforge would be good and get played in any deck with white in Modern that's not a combo deck, but does that make it too good? No way considering that today there are only a few ways to stop the Twin combo if the opponent plays first.
I'd advocate for stoneforge to come back and I think it would make an impact enough that fair decks would see play and be competitive against a lot of the powerful combo decks.
Now that there have been confirmations of spoilers from Oath of the Gatewatch, it's time for us all to turn our attention to the new set....Oh wait, only a little?
The next Pro Tour is going to be Modern format. I do think that the format is in a place that's better than the past, but I have some concerns anyway.
My big concern is that Wizards quietly tried to do away with the Modern Pro Tour last year and only added it back in because players complained.
The complaint was "no support for the format". Well, Wizards has even said they don't want R & D to spend a lot of time on Modern because more attention needs to be paid if the format is played at the Pro Tour.
So what is to become of our beloved (I personally don't like the format because it's missing some of the key elements that make other eternal formats good but it does have many good features including no cards on the restricted list) Modern format?
I'm worried it will become a format that isn't supported with competitive play and will ultimately spiral out of control to where there is only one or two playable decks. This will cause players to lose interest in the format and cause it to die.
Let's hope Wizards keeps up the support and the format doesn't die. Maybe they could even do the first or second half of the current constructed portions of the Pro Tour in Modern so it won't be the centerpiece for the tournament but will be part of every pro tour.
Some of you might have read my article about sixth land type lately. It is oficially confirmed by Wizards now. So, few words what Wastes is:
Wastes
Basic Land
T: Add to your mana pool.
The symbol will be written as C, what states for colorless mana. There is significant difference between generic mana and colorless mana. To cast a spell with a cost you may spend any colored mana, including C. Wheras cost can only be paid by C, which is produced by Wastes basic lands. However, there is another way to obtain some mana. From now on, cards that previously generated generic mana will produce C. Cards will have their oracle text updated and for instance Grim Monolith produces .
The Wastes lands will appear in boosters more frequently than commons, but they will not be available in land stations at drafts. So, you must draft it to be able to include these lands into your deck.
The third week of round one
If you read further than this, you will get results spoiled. That is probably why you are here, though.
Catch the matches when they are published on Twitter: @MagicGathStrat
Watch the feature matches on youtube: youtube.com/magicgatheringstrat
Also make sure you subscribe to magicgatheringstrat2 on YouTube for more matches.
Ok, lets get into details.
Suicide is Painless ran into the mirror match curese and lost 0-2
What is up with these super unlikely mirror matches? Which other decks played against Suicide is Painless in round one? That's right. No other deck. Shroudfang Ninja took on Snow Zombies and won 2-0 DelverFiend took on RG Madness. It is hard to race DelverFiend with an aggro deck. 2-1 win.
BorosKitty Initiated took on the Sliver horde and was ran over 1-2 Croca Jund took on Caw Blade (the dream never dies!) Loss 0-2
WW Soul Tokens took on Mono Blue Control. It is hard to control white weenies. Win 2-0 Stompy Tokens went up against Azorius Flicker. Your value does not matter if you are crushed to a pulp. Win 2-1 Illusory Tricks defeated Grixis Turbo Angler in the air 2-0 RG Landfall took on Grixis Angler and impressed everyone with an overwhelming 2-0 victory- Goblin Storm was disappointed by MBC 1-2
Turbo Zoo fought Temur Freed Combo and won 2-1 Love Train spread the love to Simic Evolve 2-0 Project X comboed off against JeskaiKitty 2-0 Bant Sword and Shield defeated Angler Delver in a tight match 2-1 Turbo Angler defeated Izzet Freed Combo 2-1
Rhystic Tron was ready to fight JeskaiKitty but the opponent quit early. Counter-Kitty showed Dimir Control what real card advantage is. 2-0 Spiteful Leeches defeated Simic Proliferate in the first duel and then he quit Mono Green Ramp LD took away all the lands from a Dimir deck 2-0 1-land-Spy .... well, it only worked once. 1-2 vs MBC
Infect ran through Naya Thallid Walls and poisoned the opponent 2-0 Exhume Control reanimated the heavy hitters and took down RUG Tron 2-0
22 more matches played. Only 9 matches remain until round one is over!
The score this week was 17-5 meaning that we now stand at 51-20, which is about what was expected.
The 20 decks that so far are facing elimination in round 02 of the Pauper Gauntlet season three are: Familiars, MBC, Rebel Grind, Glass Cannon Red, Burn, Tortured Madness, Living End, Rakdos Vampires, Mono Red Land Destruction, Cheaty Morph, Eggs, UB Justice Control, Mono Black Land Destruction, Dragon Delve, Suicide is Painless, BorosKitty Initiated, Croca Jund, Goblin Storm Combo, 1-land-spy and Sultai Delve
Yes, that is three Top 10 decks from last season, a tier 1 deck (MBC) and the champion deck from the first season (BorosKitty) at risk of early elimination. Last year only three decks were eliminated in round 02.
The goal is to win with all these decks in round 02 and have all 78 decks see the first tournament practice round in round 03.
Round one will end right before we record the MagicGatheringStrat podcast on December 15th. Round two will end on December 22nd. As the winners do not play in round two, the second round will be significantly faster. Round three will go on over the holidays..
What happens to the decks that lost?
Round one and round two are double elimination so round two will have the losers play yet another match in the JFF room. If the decks win they move to round three (which will be tougher!) where they will join the winners of round one.
Last week we discussed Hypergeometric Distrubtion and introduced this series. We also discovered that if you run four copies of a card in a 60-card deck you have a 40% chance of having at least one copy in your opening hand.
So when do you run 4 copies of a card in your deck?
You want as many copies of the card as possible
My first rule is that you should consider if you would like 5, 6 or 7 copies if you could. A good example of this is Lightning Bolt in a Modern Burn deck. You would probably play 40 Lightning Bolts if you could. This is the easy 4-of.
In fact this rule is a good reason to run 3-ofs, 2-ofs and 1-ofs to include extra copies of the card. We will return to that example in future chapters.
You want to have a copy of the card in your starting hand
Well, the chance of that is only 40% (see above) BUT it is the highest chance you can get. If the card is critical to your early strategy you probably want four copies of the card.
A good example of this is the RG Landfall deck in Standard. You want to start the game with a Scythe Leopard on turn 1 so you run four copies of the card.
If having more than one copy of the card in your starting hand is a problem, DO NOT run four copies of the card
If a card is critical to your strategy but would be problematic in multiples in your opening hand, you should not run four copies of the card.
A good example of this is Spire Golem in Pauper Delver. This card is an excellent card for the deck but having two Spire Golems in your starting hand will make you very slow. Thus, do not run four of this card. This is a basic probability mistake made by players who do not care enough to do the math.
With ML Bot 10.60 we fixed a couple of mtgo crashes that the bot was unable to handle. When these crashes appear, older ML Bots stucked till a full mtgo restart, usually some hours later. This resulted in large inactivity periods.
We also fixed a problem with the version updater and with the Wednesday Mtgo update.
Hi Everyone,
Is it just me or does the current standard environment look a lot like a list of the Mythics in the format rather than their initial "intent".
Wizards announced Mythics to be cards that felt huge, for lack of a better term, mythic. At the beginning they did ok but it seems that of late, they are just the best tournament cards.
You can argue with me but you'd be wrong.
I know what everyone's thinking, but what's the motivation for that?
Well, getting playsets of every Mythic from a set requires more packs than to open a playset of every rare in a set.
While Magic is a great game, It makes me really annoyed that Wizards constantly tries to sell their obvious business decisions as "better for the game because X" and it's getting really tired. I think it's pretty bad because if I go to Whole Foods, they'll tell me who is their target market and what they're doing to attract that market or sell more to that market. Wizards blatantly lies to us. I don't like that.
On another unrelated note, It really annoys me that many MTG fans (the fans don't annoy me, WOTC annoys me) think MaRo is just "a big nerd who loves Magic and loves talking about Magic". Now, maybe that's true, but he's not their "ambassador" to the players because HE loves it, it's because Wizards knows the players find him credible. What I'm saying is that MaRo is an advertising puppet for WOTC and I wouldn't assign y more credibility to him than any other paid endorsement.
Hi Everyone,
It appears to me lately that standard is super, duper expensive. I mean let's have a look:
I took that from mtggoldfish.com for those curious. $500+ (assuming tix are $1) for Standard?!?!?!?!?!
Yeah, I didn't read that wrong, so why is this happening?
When we look at the break down, almost $300 is Jace (or Jaces? I'm not sure the plural of Jace). 4 copies runs $284.52 at the time of this writing.
Three mythics in the deck (four copies of two and two copies of another total almost $150. That's steep but the cards are Monastery Mentor, Gideon, and Dragonlord Ojutai.
Now, the real lemon juice on the papercut. Land in this deck costs over $100. LAND in STANDARD!!!!!!
The high land price is because of the fetches in Khans combining with the Battle for Zendikar Lands (that won't make it in modern if you ask me).
So what's the deal? It looks like 80% of the deck price is because of Mythics and the other 20% is rares. Interesting that all the non-land cards that are more than about $1 are mythics. Just making an observation regarding the Mythic habits of R & D.
Hi Everyone,
I have been experimenting with Legacy decks a lot lately. I know it's said to be a dying format but the more I play, the more I love it. It's a great format with a number of tier 1 decks.
It makes me sad that the format isn't as vibrant as it could be. I'm losing interest in Modern because it seems like the only thing that ever matters is opening hands and the game doesn't seem to last long enough to have draws matter because there aren't enough turns to play mana to play spells that matter after the opening hand....but I digress.
I took Legacy Jund out for a spin last week, check it out below.
Hi Everyone,
A hot topic lately in the MTG community has been the restricted list. I find that people mostly don't like it, except people who invested in the cards early on.
The list is several cards that will never be reprinted nor will they have functional reprints (different name, same everything else).
This was hotly contested in the past and is again being discussed.
I just wanted to mention that because it's interesting that the topic keeps coming up and has been said by MaRo that the restricted list isn't going anywhere anytime soon. For those wondering, now isn't soon either.
Barry Reich is a friend of Richard Garfield, and one of the first people who playtested Magic.
He designed Spectral Chaos set shortly after the release of Alpha, which included mutli-colored mechanics such as domain and a sixth basic land type (colorless), known as “Barry’s land”. Spectral Chaos never saw the light of day, but it was the inspiration for Invasion. Find out what Barry had in mind. How would have Spectral Chaos impacted the course of Magic history? How would Vintage format look like now?
- each color has its own Dark Ritual in allied-color, for instance G: add WWW
- 0 Instant: "Add R to your mana pool for each tapped island you control. Add U to your mana pool for each tapped mountain you control."
- 1RW Enchantment: When Solar Flare enters the battlefield, each other player draws ten card and you draw eleven cards. Each player's maximum hand size is increased by three.
Take a lookhere for more! Over 400 cards, some looks normal, some overpowered like these above. It is definitely worth checking it out. It is our history.
If you read further than this, you will get results spoiled. That is probably why you are here, though.
Catch the matches when they are published on Twitter: @MagicGathStrat
Watch the feature matches on youtube: youtube.com/magicgatheringstrat
Also make sure you subscribe to magicgatheringstrat2 on YouTube for more matches.
Ok, lets get into details.
Simic Oracle defeated Tortured Abzan 2-1 and made it to round 3. Mono Black Control took on its nemesis RUG Tron and got outvalued 0-2, forcing this tier 1 deck to play in round 2 and face the risk of early elimination! Delver took on Freed from the Reel Combo and won 2-0 White Heroes ran into the unlikely mirror match (what are the odds?) and won 2-1
Top 10 S02 deck Rebel Grind faced off against MBC but lost 1-2
Cyborgs (White Weenie Metalcraft) took on Domain and won 2-1
Crowd favorite 5-color Green took on Goblins and bounced Lone Missionaries all day for a 2-0 victory.
Top 10 S02 deck Familiars lost to Elves 0-2
The confusingly named deck The Pauper Gauntlet took on Golgari Delve and won 2-1
Creature swarm deck Blue Bichinho faced UB Control and won 2-0
Pauper Gauntlet S02 winner Stompy took on RUG Tron and won 2-1
Power_Ts Pig Trinket faced an interesting RG Eldrazi ramp deck and won easily 2-0 Glass Cannon Red proved unreliable and lost to White Weenie 1-2
Pauper Gauntlet S02 runner-up Burn took on Turbo Angler and was crushed 0-2 Tortured Madness faced Faeries (not Delver .... Faeries!) and lost hard 0-2
Everyone's darling Green Grifters faced top tier Angler Delver and somehow won 2-1. This is a behaviour we have seen before from Green Grifters. Surely that was what made everyone vote it in this year.
Top 10 S02 deck Bugs & Pigs took on Grixis Control and won 2-1 Suicide Black, cheered on by many, faced Pestilence and won 2-1 to the crowd's delight
RB Control Deck Pauper Nightmare took on DelverFiend and won 2-1. Removal is good. UB Trinket Control, the deck that started it all, faced Bant Blink and won easily 2-0
RG Land Crusher also faced Bant Blink and made the elaborate deck unable to play its spells 2-0 Abzan Grindhouse played the grindiest match so far in the Gauntlet, winning with 15 seconds left against Dimir Control, timing him out.
22 more matches played. 18 wins. 6 losses. 31 matches to go until we are done with round one.
With the 16-9 result from week one the current result stands at 34-15.
The 15 decks that so far are facing elimination in round 02 of the Pauper Gauntlet season three are: Familiar, MBC, Rebel Grind, Glass Cannon Red, Burn, Tortured Madness, Living End, Rakdos Vampires, Mono Red Land Destruction, Cheaty Morph, Eggs, UB Justice Control, Mono Black Land Destruction, Dragon Delve and Sultai Delve
Yes, that is three Top 10 decks from last season plus a tier 1 deck (MBC) at the risk of early elimination. Last year only three decks were eliminated in round 02.
The goal is to win with all these decks in round 02 and have all 78 decks see the first tournament practice round in round 03.
Round one will end right before we record the MagicGatheringStrat podcast on December 15th. Round two will end on December 22nd. As the winners do not play in round two, the second round will be significantly faster. Round three will go on over the holidays..
What happens to the decks that lost?
Round one and round two are double elimination so round two will have the losers play yet another match in the JFF room. If the decks win they move to round three (which will be tougher!) where they will join the winners of round one.
Starting this week you will receive every Saturday morning a weekly recap email. The email contains a number of useful information condensed in a unique place, such as number of trades, profit, Return On Investment, suggestions and advises. The information is available on the Online Control Panel (the email contains the links for it) but having them clearly stated in a unique place every week is useful.
What are the data you usually look for? If you think there is something we are missing, please let us know. Below an example email :
Today I am starting a new miniseries here on mtgolibrary. In a Pauper Gauntlet video I critiqued a deck for having a random 1-of. That lead to an interesting discussion about the number of copies of a card to include in a deck. Which cards can you use a single copy of? Which cards do you need all four copies of? Before we start with the 4-ofs next week, we need to discuss the Hypergeometric Distribution. Bear with me. This will involve some light math. OK, maybe not that light. Try to bear with me anyway. To understand high level Magic theory you have to do the math. There is no other way. Hypergeometric Distribution calculates your chances of drawing a particular number of successes from a certain population. Imagine that you are playing Jund in Modern. You would very much like to start the game with a Tarmogoyf. What is the likelihood of drawing of having at least one Tarmogoyf in your opening hand on seven cards? Population Size: 60 cards Successes in Population: 4 Goyfs Sample Size: 7 cards Here is an online calculator for Hypergeometric Distrubitons that I like to use: http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx If you run the above numbers you get a 40% chance of getting at least one Goyf in your opening hand. Try it and see if you understand how the calculator works. Mulligans complicate this but the principles still hold. We will return to Hypergeometric Distributions in the upcoming part. I will add links below to the different parts as I publish them. Part 2: 4-ofs Dec 9th Part 3: 3-ofs Dec 16th Part 4: 2-ofs Dec 23rd Part 5: 1-ofs Dec 30th Part 6: A sample deck
Bonus. The even more mathematical model of doing this!
The odds of drawing a particular card in a 60-card deck are 1/60. If there are four Goyfs, the odds are 4/60. The odds of NOT drawing one of those cards in the first draw is 1 - 4/60 = 56/60.
To calculate the odds of the entire first hand, we can do it backwards:
The odds of not having any of the four cards in the first card is 56/60 The second card has odds of 55/59 (there are still 4 goyfs but only 55 non-Goyfs), and then 54/58 and so on:
Card 1: 56/60 chance of not being the Goyf
Card 2: 55/59
Card 3: 54/58
Card 4: 53/57
Card 5: 52/56
Card 6: 51/55
Card 7: 50/54
The odds of ALL of these happening (i.e. there is no Goyf in your opening hand) is the result of multiplying all these odds together:
If you read further than this, you will get results spoiled. That is probably why you are here, though.
Catch the matches when they are published on Twitter: @MagicGathStrat
Watch them on youtube: youtube.com/magicgatheringstrat
Also make sure you subscribe to magicgatheringstrat2 on YouTube for more matches.
Ok, lets get into details.
The Green One opened round one against Orzhov Soldiers, defeating them 2-1. Mono Red Heroic, another top 10 deck from last year, got a third turn kill and won the match against BUG Control 2-1. Slivers just ran over Grixis Delver 2-0. Living End lost against Domain Landfall 1-2 and now have to face elimination in round two. Rakdos Vampires, the people's choice from the Pauper Rogue Cup, lost against RG Landfall 1-2. Mono Red Land Destruction lost again Hexproof 0-2. Izzet Cooldotha defeated Esper Trinket 2-0 and move directly to round three. Pestilence Control faced the unlikely mirror but won 2-0. Cheaty Morph lost against Dimir Control 0-2. Selesnya Flash won against an Affinity quitter 2-0 Kuldotha Mardu showed itself as a true contender, crushing Mono Green Tron 2-0 Death Control ate the WW Tokens 2-0 Encroaching Blight totally crushed JeskaiKitty 2-0 impressing me greatly. MUC got a bye from a quitter 2-0 Eggs took on RWB Kuldotha and lost 1-2. RUG Tron faced the White Metalcraft deck and won 2-1
Gary Busey got drunk and abused some Selesnya Lifegain deck 2-0. UG Madness defeated DelverFiend 2-1. Bant Fog managed to defeat Naya Blue 2-0 despite me making 30+ mistakes to Pierakor's great dismay. UB Justice Control lost against MBC 1-2 somehow. Sultai Delve got flinged to death twice by Affinity 0-2.
A Mono Blue Tron deck was overwhelmed by Flying Ninjas and fled the field. Mono Black Land Destruction could not take away the resources of Hexproof and lost 0-2. Affinity crushed some Thallids on the way to the factory 2-0 Dragon Delve got crushed by Turbo Angler 0-2. Goblins ran over a burn deck so fast that it was scary 2-0 Black Auramancer, the winner of the Pauper Rogue Cup, defeated Mono Green 2-0
25 matches played. 16 wins. 9 losses. 43 matches to go until we are done with round one.
Round one will probably take 3-4 weeks to complete. As the winners do not play in round two, the second round will be significantly faster.
What happens to the decks that lost?
Round one and round two are double elimination so round two will have the losers play yet another match in the JFF room. If the decks win they move to round three (which will be tougher!) where they will join the winners of round one.
If you are wondering why prices of Modern staples are raising lately the Modern Mayhem is the reason. It is a one-time large Modern event happening Sunday, December 6 at 8am Pacific with spectacular prizes:
1st Place: 4 Modern Masters sets, 4 Modern Masters 2015 Edition sets, 6 Qualifier Points
2nd Place: 2 Modern Masters sets, 2 Modern Masters 2015 Edition sets, 5 Qualifier Points
3rd-4th Place: 1 Modern Masters set, 1 Modern Masters 2015 Edition set, 4 Qualifier Points
5th-8th Place: 1 Modern Masters set, 3 Qualifier Points
9th-16th Place: 300 Play Points
In my opinion it is good time now to sell some overpriced cards, like Grove of the Burnwillows or other.
What if we played Stompy but just had many more creatures? This deck was originally by Deluxeicoff but was requested by patrons of patreon.com/magicgatheringstrat (anyone who contributes get to make video request) and submitted to the Pauper Gauntlet by one such patron.
There is no SB plan and no play instructions, so if anyone want to help out with those I will be most grateful.
Here is a video of the deck made on a patron request.
Deck list
16 Forest 4 Khalni Garden 4 Might of the Masses 4 Nettle Sentinel 4 Tukatongue Thallid 4 Young Wolf 4 Sprout Swarm 4 Scatter the Seeds 2 Safehold Elite 4 Fists of Ironwood 4 Essence Warden 4 Nest Invader 4 Scion of the Wild
to your mana pool.
and colorless mana 
