This is the first episode:
Basically, I am doing four different specs right now.
1. Buy Pauper. Extremely high risk. Flashback drafts and the loss of Daily Events have hurt the Pauper staples (Always very unstable) a lot. Some cards have dropped 90% or more (Snuff Out for example). If you want to do a high risk adventure speculation, invest in Pauper staples. Returns of 800-1000% in a year is not unthinkable. Only for the brave.
2. Buy Modern staples. Just five months to the first Modern PTQ season since early 2013. Prices will soar and some cards (especially MMA that was recently drafted) are still low. Pretty solid returns.
3. Sell Standard. Even Theros cards (but especially RTR Block and M14) should spike soon. When the Standard PTQ Season in Paper ends on March 9th, the stuff that will rotate this fall will start falling.
4. Buy Penny rares. I have a special place in my heart for Penny Rare speculation. I just sold 213 Nightveil Specters and now I am trying to get rid of 200 High Priest of Penance. If one Penny Rare hits, it pays off for a lot of them that did not hit. Speculating on Penny Rares brought me into Contact with Daniel who managed to summarize a lot of thoughts about Theros Penny Rares (below)
P.s. I am also buying M14 Mythics, but that is the subject for a whole other article. D.s.
My friend Daniel on the Theros Penny Rares (in response to my own thoughts on the subject):
Okay, so here is my line of thinking on the cards I'm targeting from THS right now..
Rageblood Shaman - I believe the block is bound to produce some more Minotaurs; I think that's a given. We already have Rageblood, Reckoner and Fanatic of Mogis, which makes for a decent good core. This spec may be predicated on a good 1-drop Minotaur but I also think an above-average Midrange piece could cause a spike as well. There's very little risk here at .02-.05 and a decently high ceiling.
Reverent Hunter - I've had some experience against mono green devotion and think it can be a very real deck. Whenever I see this guy hit the board, he's a 5/5 for 2G. Also working to its advantage is that he scales so he isn't a specifically bad late game draw. Casting cost is nice, typing is nice (human) and the current price is nice at .04-.06. I'm in.
Arbor Colossus - 6/6 for 5CMC, can grow and has a relevant ability (walls/shoots down cloudfin, nightveil, stormbreath and etc.). Good card overall but I'm looking to grab it for under .1 if possible.
Those are the main ones I'm looking at right now. As for mythics, I grabbed two playsets of Underworld Cerberus for .64 because I think at least one of his abilities will be very relevant in the upcoming meta. It doesn't have a ETB trigger, which is a big deal of course but the super evasion plus dissuading hard
removal seems very good.
removal seems very good.
To a lesser extent I like Prognostic Sphinx (has some appeal if control mirrors become a thing IMO), Nighthowler (is a better Reverent Hunter if GY shenanigans take off), Prophet of Kruphix (would be buying if it were .05 cheap; on the fence), Daxos of Meletis (have play tested and my opponent ALWAYS targets him first; I think it means something), Reaper of Wilds (I'd be happier here if it were cheaper and the Golgari Scryland was being released in BNG), Polis Crusher (efficient body:cost, hope ability becomes a little more relevant) and Ember Swallower (see Crusher although it's alarming that red devo hasn't made any use of him).
Oh, by the way, here are the exact numbers on the mana intensive 3CMC lords..
Knight Exemplar - high of 1.5
Field Marshal - 1.6
Merfolk Sovereign - .13
Grand Architect - 1.4
Goblin King - N/A
Goblin General- 1.4
Balthor the Stout - .19
Elvish Champion - 2.5
Elvish Archdruid - 1.2
Lord of the Undead- 4
Death Baron - .88
Cemetery Reaper -.95
Captivating Vampire - .9
* for cards with multiple reprints, I took the high of their first Printing.
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