Rock, paper and scissors in the August 2016 Pauper metagame

In the Pauper metagame on MTGO, Mono Red Burn has long been a deck with a very small metagame presence. This was due to the fact that Burn has a very bad matchup against Mono Blue Delver.

Here is a sample Burn list from the current meta.

Burn (Rock)

Creatures (8)
4	Keldon Marauders		0.16
4	Thermo-Alchemist		0.12
Spells (33)
4	Chain Lightning		0.16
4	Lava Spike		2.16
4	Lightning Bolt		2.16
4	Needle Drop		0.24
4	Curse of the Pierced Heart		0.20
1	Incinerate		0.03
4	Searing Blaze		2.92
3	Rift Bolt		0.54
1	Staggershock		0.02
4	Fireblast		1.84
Lands (19)
2	Forgotten Cave		0.08
17	Mountain		0.00
Sideboard (15)
2	Electrickery		0.10
2	Gorilla Shaman		32.50
2	Martyr of Ashes		0.50
4	Smash to Smithereens		0.04
4	Molten Rain		5.12
1	Goblin Heelcutter		0.05
75 Cards Total

The reason Delver wins against Burn is the tempo control game. While the crucial last Burn spells can be countered, Delver is beating down hard. If you durdle around against Burn your control spells do not really help you, but if you present an active clock and defend yourself at the same time, Burn is not in a good place.

Delver (Paper)

Creatures (20)
4	Delver of Secrets		0.16
4	Faerie Miscreant		0.04
4	Spellstutter Sprite		0.28
4	Ninja of the Deep Hours		8.20
4	Spire Golem		2.44
Spells (23)
1	Bonesplitter		0.05
1	Dispel		0.03
2	Mutagenic Growth		1.62
4	Ponder		0.16
4	Preordain		2.04
2	Vapor Snag		0.24
4	Counterspell		0.16
1	Deprive		0.05
2	Snap		7.02
2	Gush		2.00
Lands (17)
17	Island		0.00
Sideboard (15)
3	Annul		0.06
3	Coral Net		1.47
3	Hydroblast		13.05
2	Relic of Progenitus		0.60
2	Stormbound Geist		0.10
2	Serrated Arrows		5.04
75 Cards Total

Yet, Burn is back today with a respectable 4,52% of the metagame while Delver has fallen from the 25% range down to 11.06%. Why is that? Well, there is a third part in the equation.

The new Izzet Drake combo deck is resilient enough to survive the tempo control plan - apparently, even though Fish style tempo control decks such as Delver is a traditional good foil to combo - and overtake Delver as the #1 deck in the format.

The downside, of course, is that Izzet Drake is not fast enough to be able to handle Burn. There is no early threat. You can have as many hydroblasts and main deck counters as you like. Without the early threats, Burn has the time to find enough damage to kill you. The Burn player is not scared when you are beating down with Sea Gate Oracles and Mulldrifters.

Izzet Drake (Scissors)

Creatures (14)
4	Sea Gate Oracle		1.52
2	Archaeomancer		0.08
4	Mulldrifter		0.92
4	Peregrine Drake		3.20
Spells (25)
2	Firebolt		0.20
4	Flame Slash		1.48
4	Lightning Bolt		2.16
4	Preordain		2.04
4	Counterspell		0.16
1	Capsize		0.28
3	Compulsive Research		0.15
3	Ghostly Flicker		0.12
Lands (21)
1	Forgotten Cave		0.04
6	Island		0.00
4	Izzet Boilerworks		0.24
1	Izzet Guildgate		0.03
5	Mountain		0.00
4	Swiftwater Cliffs		0.12
Sideboard (15)
2	Electrickery		0.10
2	Firebolt		0.20
2	Gorilla Shaman		32.50
4	Hydroblast		17.40
4	Pyroblast		14.44
1	Capsize		0.28
75 Cards Total

Yes, there are other relevant actors in the format such as Stompy, Affinity and Bogles, but I thought this was a quite clear example of the rock-paper-scissors thing that often happens in a magic metagame.