The M14 Bulk Mythics project - final evaluation

A year ago I published a video about M13 crap mythics and how I would use my theories about redemption to earn money on M14 crap mythics. A crap Mythic is a mythic that goes below 50 cent at any point of its Standard life.

My actions a year ago

I invested heavily in M14 Mythics, particularly Windreader Sphinx, Darksteel Forge, Ring of Three Wishes and Devout Invocation.

At one point I even managed to move the price on Mo Souba for Windreader Sphinx.

I had 200+ copies of some or the Mythics. I did not dare go deeper at the time. And I was right not to.

Other sets
I tried to apply the same principles to other sets and found that the principle does not at all apply to small sets (Dragon's Maze) but that it applied (though somewhat less) to big sets (such as Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash).

I am now trying actively to buy any Mythic that goes below 50 cents.

So what happened to Windreader Sphinx?
When time came for the redeemers to get their crap mythics, the price of them increased violently. Just look at this graph

http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Magic+2014+Core+Set/Windreader+Sphinx#online

The right time to sell was December 18th or 19th. If you did you were looking at a solid 400% profit in a year if you bought at the bottom. Almost exactly like I predicted back in 2013.

So how did I do?
This is probably the part of this article you can learn the most from.

First I lowered the buy price on all the M14 crap mythics to 0,05 so I would not be one of the botters buying these from anyone and then lose money.

I put half of my crap mythics on the bots for sale at the estimated peak prices in November. Then I got nervous and decreased the prices. On December 8th a scraper bought every single copy of every one of them but at that time I had decreased the price to about 150% profit. So still not breakeven.

After that I put in the rest of them, once again at the estimated peak price.

The peak came on December 18th but it was somewhat lower than I thought so I did not sell any of them. I started selling them manually to other bots and told my partners to do so too. They did but I got caught up doing other things (it was Christmas Time, after all). The bots failed to sell even though I decreased my price to be the lowest on Magic Online.

As everyone was selling (surely some did so in panic) as the price dropped that drop was swift and quite soon we were back at pre-peak prices.

So I am stuck with a lot of M14 bulk and I went about breakeven on the whole deal.

What I will do next year
I am already picking up any bulk mythics from THS, KTK and M15 but so is everyone else. There are a lot more speculators doing exactly the same thing this year. I don't think we will ever see prices drop as low as they did last year - Hythonia was almost below 30 cent at some point.

Maybe this will never get as good again ever but I will still be picking up those 50 cent mythics when I can AND next year I will pay more attention to selling them.