Upcoming Flashback drafts

As you might know, 2016 is the year of Modern Flashbacks.

This week we are drafting 2 Time Spiral + 1 Planar Chaos. Next week they add 1 Future Sight over 1 Time Spiral and then it is time for 3x10th Edition.

I just wanted to remind you all of this and remember to pick up your TSP block and 10th Edition cards now. Flashback drafts have for many years been a good opportunity to pick up cards and sell them when prices recover (usually 6-9 months unless the card is reprinted for some other reason).

So what are you looking for? Well, Goyf is the big one of course but he is in the third set of which you will only see one pack per draft for a week. He will not drop much because of this.

Time Spiral: Living End, Vesuva, Academy Ruins, Lotus Bloom, Greater Gargadon, Restore Balance, Flagstones of Trokair, Angel's Grace, Gemstone Caverns, Norin

Planar Chaos: Damnation, Urborg, Boom//Bust, Extirpate, Simian Spirit Guide, Harmonize, Sinew Sliver (staple Pauper card)

10th Edition: Crucible of Worlds, Hurkyl's Recall, Wrath of God, Brushland, Caves of Koilos (beware this card dropping out of standard which will drop it severely), Shatterstorm, Howling Mine.


Also, be aware of Eternal Masters coming up this summer. A lot of non-Modern cards will tank. Sell them now if you don't need them.

Sell your Fetchlands now

You are probably happy that you bought your Fetchlands while KTK was still being drafted. You probably made a ton of profit. But that profit exists only during a brief window. KTK will rotate quite soon due to the new rotation schedule. In fact, the normal behaviour of cards about to rotate is that they start to fall at about this time.

But wait, you say, aren't Fetchlands eternal playable? Well, of course they are. Still, the demand from Modern will not be the same as the demand from Modern PLUS the demand from perfect-mana-Standard that exists right now. They will drop when rotation hits. Everything drops when rotation hits. Even Thoughtseize did.

I think Fetchlands are close to their peak and I am selling mine right now.

Cards I am buying right now

These are the cards I am picking up to sell later right now on Magic Online. I am not saying they are the best pickups. It just the ones I am buying personally. If you know of better pickups please let me know in the comments.

Fate Reforged
Fate Reforged was a small set with only a couple of valuable cards. They seem really cheap right now.

Picking those up to sell during a Standard price spike or long after rotation.
Monastery Mentor 8.36
Tasigur 4.34
Ugin 8.59

These cards are mostly in case of a Standard price spike. They just look very cheap.
Shaman of the Great Hunt 0.82
Brutal Hordechief 0.74
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker 4.75

Boosters
I am also picking up some boosters hoping that their price increases after Play Points become a reality

Dragons of Tarkir Booster 2,14
Khans of Tarkir Booster 1.87

Long term specs
As long term specs I am picking up some rares that would skyrocket if reprinted and some Pauper cards that look like they could gain solid value in a couple of years

Chainer's Edict 0,05
Curfew 0.04
Spellstutter Sprite 0.04
Gush 0.05
Icequake 0.04
Underworld Connections 0.02
Desecration Demon 0.02
Mind Grind 0.02
Possibility Storm 0.02
Sylvan Primordial 0.02
Any RTR or GTC Shockland while Modern prices fall

This is the last really good time to pick up Vintage Masters

Vintage Masters will not be draftable for much longer. Except for the occasional flashback draft, this is the time the last draft remains are dumped onto the market.

Look at the Goldfish graph here: http://www.mtggoldfish.com/index/VMA#online

VMA has - very broadly - been rising steadily for some time now. This will not stop. People will still be needing Dual Lands, Sol Rings, Mishra's Workshops etc.

Buy some now. You will thank me in the future.

Unless you have a big bankroll I would stay away from the Power 9 (they tie up too much of your liquidity) and go for the 4-of-Mythics and the rares.

This is not the best time to pick up VMA but it is the best time from this point on and probably until the end of Magic Online.

The only great argument for not picking up VMA is that rotation is almost upon us and rotation is traditionally the best time to invest in anything on Magic Online.

The beginning of the MTGO rollercoaster!

Hi Everyone!

This week is just like the first week of school! There’s some excitement, some anxiety, and a lot of uncertainty. We all worried about our friends, our teachers, the homework…everything. That’s what’s happening right now in MTGO.

The Khans of Tarkir spoiler was released and we all know what Khans holds for us. I always love when we finally get to see all the cards in a new set, but this summer it’s different. This summer it means our beloved Vintage Masters is going the way of the Dodo. In just a few short weeks Khans will release on line and then it’s really over.

Why is this relevant a month before Vintage masters goes away? It is relevant because everyone online realized that this week. Look at any card on any price website. If you do, you’ll see that so many cards have spiked up in value. Look at Council’s Judgment (a card I have been stockpiling since the release of Vintage Masters by the way). This week Council’s Judgment shot up over 200% this week alone! All the constructed playable cards have been spiking in value. If it had any value before Vintage Masters, it’s going up (Power is going up too). The time when cards start to shoot up is the time that makes me excited and nervous at the same time. I always think about when to get out of certain cards and when to buy more.

I think the trick right here is to hold cards until there’s a reason to sell. It’s no secret the price of Vintage Masters cards would increase once Vintage Masters went off sale. The cards not being expected to go up is a reason to sell. I’d wait around until probably early 2015 in February or March and unload the Vintage Masters stuff then unless you’re in it for the long haul. By this time, there will probably be one of two reasons: The price may become stagnant Or Wizards could announce another “Masters” set for next summer (most likely Modern Masters 2, but possibly Legacy Masters, or on a very slim chance Vintage Masters 2 or Masters Edition 5).

I know dozens of people who play seriously and invest casually (they’re doing it backward if you ask me, but to each his (or her) own) and told me they bought Vintage Masters dual lands, or Power to just hang on to, to make a fortune on in a few years. That sounds good and it’s always fun to say, “I own power”, but the hardcore investors should stay out of that kind of investment as it ties up a lot of resources and doesn’t make a lot of percentage when you look at the time vs the profit.

It’s an exciting time. If you haven’t bought all the Vintage Masters you want, you’d better pick them up before they get out of control. I just tell my friends who bought cards for investment purposes the same thing every time the market goes through a shakeup (expected or not expected). I tell them that it’s important to look at the situation and remember what they thought when they got in and stay frosty.

What will the Khans of Tarkir fetches sell for?

Hi Everyone!

In my article earlier this week I mentioned that allied fetch lands are coming back. Now that I have had a few days to consider what will be the forces acting upon the fetch land prices, I wanted to tell everyone about it.

If we go back in time a little and look at the Return to Ravnica shock lands, we see that they had a turbulence price wise their entire time in standard. I think this will be less true of shock lands. The reason is that fetches don’t seem so good in standard with no shock lands to fetch. It’s possible that they could do a cycle of lands that are a basic type that can make other colors of mana (like Murmuring Bosk) and then it could be just as turbulent. The other reason I don’t think prices will be so erratic because cards that are good in the “eternal formats” (I include Modern in this grouping along with Legacy and Vintage). The eternal formats seem to have much less price turbulence. It won’t all be smooth sailing, but it won’t be like the shock lands that were awesome in standard and modern, and almost never saw play in the older eternal formats. I think it’s going to be a smooth ride for the fetches through Standard...It’s possible that the fetches could barely be playable in standard. I don’t know right now.

My favorite tool when making decisions is research. Let’s have a look at the closest thing to this that happened fairly recently, the enemy fetches from Zendikar (have a look for yourself…it’s tedious and boring for a lot of people so I left the data out of this article). Unfortunately, Modern didn’t exist when they first came out, neither did Vintage Online. Fetches were as low as $3 in Zendikar standard days. I think they will be higher this time around.

My prediction is that the reprints of the Onslaught allied fetches will settle in the $7 to $10 range while they are in standard. I think they will be a great investment.

One last interesting thing I read in another article is that it’s possible that the allied fetches open new Modern deck choices. At first it sounded like nonsense until I realized that a lot of modern decks (scapeshift, UWR, and Jund) all have very shaky mana bases and taking out a key land really hurts. It’s really possible that decks with color combinations that don’t have access to the best mana with enemy colored fetches could emerge as competitive decks with the addition of more fetch lands.

One cautionary note I wanted to make: The new 2 set blocks and no core sets gives Wizards a lot more new “planes” to visit than before (twice as many to be exact). It seems to me like they could be using this opportunity to reprint cards that are expensive to make them accessible at a faster rate than before.

Mtg Confidant

Fetches in Khans of Tarkir!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hi Everyone!

I’m sure everyone has heard by now that the original allied color fetch lands from Onslaught will be in Khans of Tarkir. That’s great because they are one of the major barriers to players getting into Legacy. My initial thought is that Wizards could print the Zendikar fetches in the next set or the next block. I don’t know what is going to happen. All I can say as of right now you should unload any allied fetches and pick them up after Khans comes out. 

My first impression is that this is great for Modern. It gives people a way to play Modern with fetches, that are practically a necessity without having to spend a fortune on the Zendikar fetches. I can go on and on about the specific things that are accomplished by the Onslaught Fetches in Standard but I boiled it down to two basic things happening.

First, it allows players the accessibility to play the older formats. This is good for everyone because no matter what cards they reprint, other cards in the format will get more expensive and make up the difference. If a ton of people get into Modern because of the fetches, they will buy up all the other cards needed for modern too and drive their prices up. If you don’t have all your money in fetches, then you’ll actually be doing better after the fetches get reprinted than if they hadn’t been reprinted.

Second, it is a new tool for Modern. Modern didn’t have allied fetches ever. This is a new and exciting development that will make Modern a more interesting format it will make good mana bases easier in the format. And, it will make already excellent mana bases even better. All in all, I think this is a great development for Magic and all the “eternal” formats (including Modern).

 

The only other thing that I’m thinking initially about new cards that certainly will see play in Modern is that (I have said it before) over a long enough time period, all the eternal formats will look almost the same. They won’t eve

r be exactly the same, but will become more similar as time goes on. The allied fetches are a perfect example of this and I don’t know what it means about the format as a whole.

I do know one thing about the fetches getting reprinted, they are going to be a great opportunity to invest and make some money on the cards.

What's the deal with Magic 2015?

Hi Everyone!

For a while now, I have wondered what's wrong with Magic 2015. I don't get it. It seems like it's under performing from a financial perspective at least.

It didn't make any sense to me, I have this theory called, "the shiny new thing theory" (just a disclaimer: it is only a theory at this point and I am still researching to perfect the assumptions of the theory). The theory basically says that when something comes out on Magic Online people flock to it and everyone loses interest in other things and runs to the shiny new thing. This has been the first time the theory doesn't seem to hold water. There is one point that I think is worth mentioning regarding the SNT not applying this time. Magic Online has never had vintage available online before. I suppose it's fair to say that shiny new things do not trump Vintage legal powerhouse cards like the Power 9 and all the restricted cards.

I thought it couldn't be that simple. That's not very exciting, and really overly simple for an economy with the complexity of Magic Online. There must be more than that to it. Vintage Masters is just so popular that it's cannibalizing sales of Magic 2015....Seriously, that's it? Nope.

I

thought there's no way it's just Vintage Masters is soooooo great (it's pretty awesome, but not awesome enough to get me to forget about Standard). I looked at the top 8 decklists from Pro Tour Magic 2015 and found my answers. The only cards in many of the decks from Magic 2015 were land, specifically the enemy color pain lands, and Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth.

So what does it all mean? At this point I think it only means that Magic 2015 just doesn't add a lot to standard. Wizards has been changing cards in the Core Sets to let standard change from the beginning of a block to the time a block rotates out of standard.

I'm sure you're asking by now, what does this mean for my investments (or upcoming trade decisions)?

Well, back in the old days (read: any set before Magic 2015), we could conceivably predict that the initial hyped cards had dropped to normal values and the cards were in general the lowest they'd be before the Standard Pro Tour Qualifier season (the time that you sell) about two weeks after the online release date. This time it's a little different. I think the happenings of Vintage Masters and the minimal impact on standard are slowing everything down, but not from the beginning of the cycle, it seems to have sped up the "chase" cards dropping in price and then the market is staying lower than it probably should be under normal circumstances.

I think a lot of the cards have deflated values and it's a great time if you want to call some shots and try investing based on a card being good. I don't typically recommend that, because it's just gambling on deck builders using the card you picked in major tournaments.

On the other hand, if you're investing based on the cyclical nature of cards in standard, I'm recommending that it's too early to jump in right now. There are a lot of rares that seem "really good" for $1 but they could see no play and drop to a nickel, and you will have lost 95% of your money, and based on my experience, that's not a good thing.

For now I'm staying out of Magic 2015 until I'm confidant that prices aren't high on bulk rares in hopes of picking the non-bulk rares that are low right now.



Mtg Confidant

Vintage Masters and the Effect on the MTGO Eternal format Card Market

Hi Everyone!

I have some exciting news. I have mentioned before that I do a weekly show on YouTube talking about MTGO finance. I also record gameplay videos, usually Modern, but lately I have been playing a lot of Vintage. Today I finally got Twitter and Facebook accounts. Everything I post here, any other blogs I write for, and anything on YouTube will be on both my Facebook and my Twitter feed. Friend me on Facebook or follow me on twitter for instant updates on everything I post along with any other posts I think are interesting. The real point of me having a better presence in social media is that it's time consuming to post things in multiple places. It ends up being very tedious when I do the same thing 7 times for one new YouTube video or article (it gets really tedious when I have to post multiple things on all the sites. This will give me the ability to spend more time producing quality YouTube videos and articles instead of feeling like I might have to start skimping on quality so I can get everything posted before I run out of time. Below are my Facebook and Twitter pages. Please friend or follow me to get my latest articles and videos delivered directly to your computer or mobile device.


Mtg Confidant


Now that I have that exciting news out of the way. This week, I want to talk about the "eternal" formats. In my ongoing series of articles regarding trends in various formats, I don't think it's fair to not discuss Vintage and Legacy. Now they don't have normal behavior like the other constructed formats. There are no cycles, so how do the eternal formats behave?  There aren't any PTQ seasons or sets rotating out of the formats so there aren't any patterns to follow then, right? Wrong, there are trends, but unless people have been playing in the format for a long time, they don't observe long enough to see the trends repeat, which is how you can identify a pattern.

Now on to the solution, it's pretty obvious that part of the solution is to watch the market for a longer period of time to get a better representation of the trends in the format. The second part is to look at what affects the format as a whole?

There are only two real things that affect the eternal formats. Card bannings/restrictions, and new cards. Since once in a while a card becomes broken due to an interaction with a new card (Flash for example wasn't played until Protean Hulk was printed). So really, the only factor is the affect of new cards on the formats.

Most cards that are newer and good in eternal formats aren't allstars like Abrupt Decay, most of them are mediocre or just plain bad in Standard of Modern (think about Trygon Predator, it didn't even see play when it was first printed in Dissension and it's an all-star creature in Vintage).

The price of cards that are good in eternal formats seem to just creep higher and higher. Aside: I'm only talking about Mythic and Rare cards, and I realize Trygon Predator is uncommon, but it made the point that good in eternal formats does not mean good in standard. The cards seem to creep up in price until they're reprinted. Fortunately for everyone, Wizards doesn't really care about making eternal formats "accessible" they way they have been trying to make Modern more "accessible" (check out my next article for why there are quotes around "accessible") so it's unlikely cards that will be released will have a major impact on eternal format card prices (excluding reprint sets like Vintage Masters, designed to impact a specific format, sort of, at least, more on that another time).

I noticed that my last article got a lot of interest. It was about predictability in MTGO. It is my most popular article to date, but I didn't really think it was about MTGO as much as the business of MTGO or the Metagame of the business of MTGO (you know like a dream in a dream, lol). If my readers want articles about certain topics, I'll certainly write about them. you can leave your comments below and suggest any article topics, or email me directly at MTGConfidant@gmail.com.