Sunday, June 11, 2017

Mulligan decisions

There are a few common traps that are easy to fall into when it comes to mulligan decisions.

You drew four spells and three lands so you think 'easy keep'. Wrong. Don’t keep a hand just because it wasn't mana flooded or screwed. Look at what the hand does and then only keep it if it is good enough.

Speaking of too many land in opening hand, you cannot assume that if you drew five lands you will draw only spells now. This is a fallacy. It is about math. True that the probability of drawing a spell is slightly higher if you keep a land heavy hand, but it is not that much higher. I’m not saying it’s never correct to keep a five-lander. I’m saying you shouldn’t base your decisions on the mistaken belief that you will draw only spells now.

The odds of winning on a double mulligan are low. That's fact, but convincing yourself that your current hand is better than it is in order to justify keeping is a bad decision. With no hesitation take second mulligan if it is necesery. In some formats, such as Legacy, the right start can easily outclass your opponent. You are still able to reanimate Griselbrand on turn 2 or do any other sick things. Give yourself a chance to get totally new five cards, instead of keeping six cards with no possibility to engange.

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