Spoilers and the Market

Many Magic the Gathering Stores and Magic Online bot owners pay very close attention to the next set spoilers. This does not happen due to curiosity of any all-new cards coming out but because of possible reprints.








Spoiling a reprint as a immediate impact on the price of older versions and promotional versions of that card, an example of that can be Doom Blade getting reprinted in M14, this causes an instant demand in full art promotional versions of that card which will obviously only go up in price. Because the Promo Doom Blade price wasn't the highest even during the M12, this is not the best example, but if a card such as Mana Leak does get reprinted, the foil promotional versions will hit a massive price rise.

Remember to keep an eye on spoilers!

Dealing with new sets, a lost cause?

Are new sets too risky to deal with?

Anyone that has been using MTGO Bots for a while has surely experienced that, many times, dealing with new sets can be stressful and quite tricky. Too often we bought a card worth $8 for just 6 Tix thinking we were "playing safe" to find out , a few hours later, that this same card was now worth $3 and we didn't sell it. I will try to my best explain this phenomena with all the questions and answers you might have about it.

Why does card value drop so quickly?

I could throw the old "Supply vs Demand" theory but on set releases is a little bit more complex than that. Although we start with a supply of 0 (zero), we will also have "humans" that are eager to try the new cards, and are up to pay twice or more of what a card is likely to be worth after one week which explains the high starting price.

The amount of cards generated in the pre-release events is huge, This has a much bigger impact in price drops than in paper Magic: the Gathering, not just because of how many copies of a certain card come out, but also, because how easily MTGO allows these cards to be traded.

Why does no one sell the new cards to my bot?

More than in any other time in MTGO, the number of "humans" dealing is very respectable, and while we leave a bot running for a few hours on the same prices, humans adjust their prices every 10/15 minutes. This is likely to be the only time where most humans in fact offer better deals than most bots, because these, tend to play a bit more safe with new sets.

What should I do then?

There are a few options:

• Don't buy the new set for the first couple of days and let the market calm down
• Buy it low enough to allow you undercutting humans and sell quickly
• Buy only bulk with Lite bots on the first days (so you wont be buying junk uncommons for 0.200 a piece) so when you start fully buying the set, you only need the few expensive rares.

My Choice was a mixture between the second and third, yet there was a few trades where I've ended up in loss (few hours without updating prices is all it takes).

Feel free to add your feelings and strategies on how to deal with new sets in the comment section below.

The good of the new Redeem Fee

Much has been said about the new Redemption Fee, and for sure there are many negative aspects. Today I forced myself to find out some positive effects. I cannot think that WotC decided the increase just to put more money in the pocket.... I am sure WotC has a long time view... at least I hope.


- First of all, the price of the cards will drop 5%-10%. We will have the same amount of tixs online, but cheaper cards. What does it means? It means that our bots will buy more cards for the same amount of money, and that their collection will be better stocked. This is positive because, as I always say, the return factor of a customer is greatly influenced by the stock / the collection, rather than low prices. Many great chains have so-so prices, still they are full of customers because they simply have very well stocked collections.

- Secondly, cheaper cards and boosters means more newcomers. Mtgo is a very expensive game, and the average teenager cannot afford it. But what if he/she could? This type of new players could account for a large % of the base players. And once a teenager gets its first salary (after 2/3 years)...... he is already attracted to Mtgo and willing to spend money there.

- Finally, for redeemers, the situation won't change much. The drop in price will compensate the new fee, and more or less they will earn the same as before. The professional redeemers won't be affected too much - they will, but nothing dramatic will happen.

How WotC deals with inflation/deflation.

Last time we concluded our discussion on inflation and deflation. Armed with this background knowledge, we are going to look at how Wizards of the Coast deal with this for Magic the Gathering Online and how it affects those of us who run bots.

First off, Wizards of the Coast is in the business of making money. Now, this may shock some, but they really do care about the health of MTG. They want to make as much money as possible. I can hear some of you screaming now “No wonder they charge $4.29 per pack!” or “Is that why they release four (4) sets a year?” WotC has addressed these concerns on their site.

This may also shock some people but WotC also cares about the secondary market for its cards as well. Why? When it comes to physical Magic playing, the stores that sell booster packs, also sell the cards individually. This is how these card stores and gaming centers can get extra money. They can buy/sell individual cards and sell them on the secondary market. If there are no places to play Magic, then Magic as a game will dwindle and die away.

The same is true for the online market. Having bots buy/sell excess cards from players is a great way to bring in casual players to the scene and a way to get beginners involved without a high entry fee. I can purchase a couple hundred cards for a couple of dollars, experiment with them and can even enter tournaments using said cards and can have a reasonable chance to doing well. This is healthy for Magic, so it is in WotC's best interests to keep the secondary market alive and well.

So what specifically has WotC done to keep card values stable? Back in the early days, Invasion cards were going for a real premium. I've even heard at one point there were only three (3) copies of a certain rare foil in existence in the entire MTGO universe. So what did WotC do? They had events using Invasion cards which would increase the supply of said cards so that those who desired them, can obtain them at a reasonable price.

Deflation is more of a concern. When a set rotates out, the demand of said cards plummets. Since WotC creates this problem by rotating what is acceptable in standard and extended formats, Wizards must also address it in the secondary market as well. Otherwise, people will dump their supply just before they rotate out and the physical card shops and bots get stuck holding the bag.

So, WotC also stops printing boosters. This is done to keep the prices stable. Otherwise, a trickle of cards would enter the market as those boosters would be opened and increase the supply of cards, keeping the prices set low.

In conclusion, WotC really desires a strong secondary market for its cards because that makes their business, selling a tournament experience and booster packs, much strong and that makes them (and us who run bots) stronger in the end.