Your plans for the V3 crash

A lot of people are mad at Wizards for shutting down the v3 client on July 16th. I will not give you my opinion here. It is a fact that it is happening. How will it affect you? How will it affect the market?

Judging from earlier client switchovers, the market will fall. In fact, the switchover will be an excellent opportunity for picking up cards. The market will quickly recover and probably be back to normal levels in time for the Khans of Tarkir release.

This means that you should probably pick up:

* Theros block standard cards. Pick up the cards in Theros block with focus on cards that have done well in block and cards from the two later sets.

* Vintage Masters

July 17-31 will be an excellent time to pick these up when everyone else is looking at M15 or quitting the game.

Questions? Thoughts? How many of you were there when V2 shut down?

Cards I bought this weekend

While waiting for Vintage Masters to drop I looked for other things to invest in. I am trying to invest every week - if you don't buy, it is hard to make a good monthly earning on MTGO Finance.

Some general trends

As stated before, now is the time to invest in Theros block with the intention to sell during the first Standard PTQ Season in 2015. More about that here: http://mtgolibrary.blogspot.se/2013/11/when-to-invest-in-fall-set-theros-for.html 

Pauper is under a lot of pressure right now and I can't believe that Wizards intended it to lose this much popularity. I think they have a plan for saving Pauper and that it has already been announced - Constructed Leagues (scheduled to launch along with the relaunch of Limited Leagues this year). Generally, all Pauper staples are risky but good pickups. Having said that, I did not invest in them yet - still waiting for VMA to fall.

The cards I bought this weekend

As always I am looking for 200% return within 12 months. Some of the below investments are riskier than that but I expect their return to be greater if they hit.

Agent of the Fates (0,05): He just needs a deck and then we are off to the races.

Boon Satyr (0,11): Massive supply has bottomed out this card.

Champion of Stray Souls (0,25): This is very cheap for a Mythic and should be a good target for a sell-at-redemption pickup.

Chained to the Rocks (0,1): If there is a RW deck after rotation, this card will be in it even without Shocklands.

Clifftop Retreat (0,15): I actually bought all the ISD lands. The flashback drafts hit these cards hard when they were already trending down. This seems very cheap.

Donate (0,42): At a low point still due to the flashback drafts. Should return to old price levels eventually.

Elvish Archdruid (0,05): I picked up a couple of hundreds of these. It has been printed four times but if it becomes standard legal again it will still give a lot more than 200%. Just look what happened to Chandra's Phoenix that used to be a penny rare.

Gild (0,05): Gold just looks like a mechanic from the next block that will be more relevant come Khans of Targir.

Gods in general (x): I am getting playsets of all the gods at this time. Only going deep on Purphoros though (and possibly Kruphix).

Hive Mind (0.05) :There is even a deck named after this card and it is getting old. Is this really a penny rare forever? I doubt it.

Mistcutter Hydra (0,11): Could easily be 0.5 or 0.6 this fall.

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx (0,46): Immediatly went up after I bought it. I think this card will get its time to shine before it rotates out in October 2015.

Prophet of Kruphix (0,05): Wont be a penny rare forever.

Purphoros, God of the Forge (2.54): If Targir block is all about small creatures this guy should be quite powerful. Already seeing play in Standard, I feel it can only go up.

Spear of Heliod (0,05): If Khans is indeed about weenie hordes, this card should be useful.

Soldier of the Pantheon (0,15): The next block could be all about weenie hordes and/or be multicolored. If one of these two things happen, Soldier should be fine.

Spirit of the Labyrinth (0,05): Just way too good to be a penny rare.

Sylvan Caryatid (0,35): Good Theros pickup.

Swan Song (0,05): One mana counterspell will not be a penny rare forever.

Whip of Erebos (0,05): The legendary nature and huge supply of the divine weapons make them risky but I can't resist picking them up at this price.


What do you think are good Theros pickups? Remember the 200% rule. I am being conservative here as VMA just will be a lot better with higher returns so I am saving cash for that and for the Modern collapse in September.

I know I am much too fond of penny rares but they are the cards with the highest potential. Last year, this was the time I was involved in picking up 300 Nightveil Specters at 0,05 tix. If just one out of three penny rare specs hit the return is usually much better than going deep on Kiora or Ajani (who both are unlikely to yield 200%).

Waiting for Vintage Master prices to drop

What am I waiting for? I am waiting for supply to make the high demand cards bottom out. Here are my thoughts on the matter: http://mtgolibrary.blogspot.se/2014/05/vintage-masters.html

Contact me

Facebook: facebook.com/magicgatheringstrat
Web: magicgatheringstrat.com
Blog: mtgolibrary.blogspot.com

My YouTube channels:
Fan of History: My ancient history series
MagicGatheringStrat: My MTGO channel
Atlassolutions4: My life (and my puppy)

The time to pick up your Theros block cards for the fall is soon

I wrote about this before so this is just a friendly reminder. Pick up your Theros block cards in June.

If you want to know why you should pick up the Theros block cards you want for Khans of Targir standard now, check out this blog post:

http://mtgolibrary.blogspot.se/2013/11/when-to-invest-in-fall-set-theros-for.html

Short version: Its the summer slump. Very soon interest will switch to Vintage Masters and M15. Be sure to pick up all the Theros block cards you need for play in september AND all the cards you want to speculate on.

This was the time you could pick up Jace, Architect of Thought at 14 a year ago and then sell it six months later for 38.

What should you buy at any given moment?

I often receive questions like this: "Dan I have 205 tix on my account currently not playing mtgo can you give me some tips on what to invest and sell? Can log in everyday ect. Thanks"

That question is impossible to answer, because I have not been given enough information.

Look at some of the possible answers:

Invest everything in Pauper staples that are currently low

This is a high-return, high-risk investment. If you manage to buy Pauper cards for 15 cents each that have historically been over 1 ticket, you can get 500-2000% out of this after only 4-6 months, but so much can go wrong. What if the cards you bought are reprinted in Vintage Masters? What if the deck that uses the cards has a new replacement card, which prevents your cards from ever spiking again? What if Pauper never gets as popular as it used to be when Daily Event were around? 

Risk: High. Possible return: Up to 2000% in 6 months.

Invest everything in M14 Mythics and sell after rotiation for redemption

This is the safe alternative and still significantly better than any stock options. Look at the M13 Mythics. Right after rotation, they were all 2+ tickets. Currently you can buy some of the M14 Mythics below 50 cents. In November you should be able to sell them for at least 1 ticket each.

Risk: As low as it gets on Magic Online. Return: Up to 400% in 9 months. 100% looks very easy.

Invest Everything in Modern Staples right after Modern PTQ Season ends

If you go down this route, you will have to wait until August to buy. Then you wil have to wait until Modern PTQ season comes around again. That should happen in June 2015 but you never know with Wizards of the Coast. Looking at the way Modern cards are spiking already, you should be making some very nice profits.

Risk: Low.   Return: 100-600& in 10 months.  Cards will be very easy to move compared to the above alternatives.

Invest Everything in Theros cards when they bottom out. Sell during Standard PTQ Season

In June 2014, Theros cards will be at their lowest Point Before they rotate in October 2015. Why? Well, read this: http://mtgolibrary.blogspot.se/2013/11/when-to-invest-in-fall-set-theros-for.html

If you buy the Theros cards in June, you should be able to sell them in February (given that Standard PTQ Season do not move in 2015).

Risk: Medium. Return: Up to 100% in 8 months. Cards are super easy to move.

----------------

I could go on and I probably will at a later time. But the Point is that I can not answer your question unless you tell me your goals and answer the following questions:

• Why are you investing in Magic Online?
• When do you need the Money?
• What will you do with you profit?
• What kind of risk are you willing to take? Could you take a loss?

Two videos from the Born of the Gods prerelease

The first two players on the MagicGatheringStrat team have played the Prerelease.

Brennon takes on this Prerelease Event



Julien crushes this Prerelease draft and has some great insights into the format:





You will find more Born of the Gods videos on Youtube.com/MagicGatheringStrat

The details of the Born of the Gods Prerelease and Release Events can be found here: https://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/other/01132014

The five gods from Journey into Nyx

We have already met the five major gods and five of the minor gods of Theros. But there are still five more gods to be published in Journey into Nyx (prerelease events start on April 26, 2014).

Let me tell you about these five minor gods.

Iroas, God of Victory (RW)
Iroas is the twin brother of Mogis and while both are gods of war, they have a very different outlook and do not get along. He is worshipped in Akros and the Iroan Games (the Theros version of the Olympics) are held in his honor.

The flavor text from Arena Athlete: “The Iroan Games award no medals. Athletes vie for a visit from Iroas, god of victory.”  


Athreos (BW)
It is unclear what Athreos title will be a this time. He is Charon, the ferryman, and is responsible for getting those who die to Erebos's realm. He is surely upset about the Returned who defied the orderly process of Death that Athreos is responsible for.

The flavor text from Sentry of the Underworld: “When Athreos gathers the newly dead to be ferried across the Five Rivers that Ring the World, he sends skeletal griffins to fetch those who stray.” 

Pharika (GB)
She is the godess of Gorgons, healing and poison. She appears as a Gorgon herself. The other gods most likely despise her.

Pharika’s Cure has the flavor text:"’The venom cleanses the sickness from your body, but it will not be pleasant, and you may not survive. Pharika’s blessings are fickle.’ —Solon, acolyte of Pharika”

Keranos, God of Storms (RU)
While Heliod is the lawful good side of Zeus, Keranos seems to be the wrathful, Lightning side of Zeus. If it wasn't for the blue side of him he would seem to be very much like Thor of Nordic mythology. When he is not blasting stuff, Keranos sends visions and prophecies all over the place. One of his most well-known followers is the Queen of Akros, Cymede, a frequent receives of his visions.

The flavor text from Steam Augury: “Keranos is a fickle god, delivering punishment as readily as prophecy.” 

Kruphix, God of Horizons (UG)
Kruphis is pretty much a mystery at this Point. He does not seem to be very Simic at all, but rather deal in time, unblockability and untapping things. We just don't know very much about him at this point in time, which surely is what he intends.

The flavor text from Prophet of Kruphix: "Time is fluid as a dance and truth as fleeting."

MTGO Weekly Finance Tips

Just started a series on YouTube that I will do every Monday with a couple of Finance tips. I do a segment on the podcast Pauper to the People and I will do the YouTube video right Before that segment, so they will overlap.

This is the first episode:

Basically, I am doing four different specs right now.

1. Buy Pauper. Extremely high risk. Flashback drafts and the loss of Daily Events have hurt the Pauper staples (Always very unstable) a lot. Some cards have dropped 90% or more (Snuff Out for example). If you want to do a high risk adventure speculation, invest in Pauper staples. Returns of 800-1000% in a year is not unthinkable. Only for the brave.

2. Buy Modern staples. Just five months to the first Modern PTQ season since early 2013. Prices will soar and some cards (especially MMA that was recently drafted) are still low. Pretty solid returns.

3. Sell Standard. Even Theros cards (but especially RTR Block and M14) should spike soon. When the Standard PTQ Season in Paper ends on March 9th, the stuff that will rotate this fall will start falling.

4. Buy Penny rares. I have a special place in my heart for Penny Rare speculation. I just sold 213 Nightveil Specters and now I am trying to get rid of 200 High Priest of Penance. If one Penny Rare hits, it pays off for a lot of them that did not hit. Speculating on Penny Rares brought me into Contact with Daniel who managed to summarize a lot of thoughts about Theros Penny Rares (below)


P.s. I am also buying M14 Mythics, but that is the subject for a whole other article. D.s.


My friend Daniel on the Theros Penny Rares (in response to my own thoughts on the subject):

Okay, so here is my line of thinking on the cards I'm targeting from THS right now..

Rageblood Shaman - I believe the block is bound to produce some more Minotaurs; I think that's a given. We already have Rageblood, Reckoner and Fanatic of Mogis, which makes for a decent good core. This spec may be predicated on a good 1-drop Minotaur but I also think an above-average Midrange piece could cause a spike as well. There's very little risk here at .02-.05 and a decently high ceiling.

Reverent Hunter - I've had some experience against mono green devotion and think it can be a very real deck. Whenever I see this guy hit the board, he's a 5/5 for 2G. Also working to its advantage is that he scales so he isn't a specifically bad late game draw. Casting cost is nice, typing is nice (human) and the current price is nice at .04-.06. I'm in.

Arbor Colossus - 6/6 for 5CMC, can grow and has a relevant ability (walls/shoots down cloudfin, nightveil, stormbreath and etc.). Good card overall but I'm looking to grab it for under .1 if possible.

Those are the main ones I'm looking at right now. As for mythics, I grabbed two playsets of Underworld Cerberus for .64 because I think at least one of his abilities will be very relevant in the upcoming meta. It doesn't have a ETB trigger, which is a big deal of course but the super evasion plus dissuading hard
removal seems very good.

To a lesser extent I like Prognostic Sphinx (has some appeal if control mirrors become a thing IMO), Nighthowler (is a better Reverent Hunter if GY shenanigans take off), Prophet of Kruphix (would be buying if it were .05 cheap; on the fence), Daxos of Meletis (have play tested and my opponent ALWAYS targets him first; I think it means something), Reaper of Wilds (I'd be happier here if it were cheaper and the Golgari Scryland was being released in BNG), Polis Crusher (efficient body:cost, hope ability becomes a little more relevant) and Ember Swallower (see Crusher although it's alarming that red devo hasn't made any use of him).

 

Oh, by the way, here are the exact numbers on the mana intensive 3CMC lords..
 
Knight Exemplar - high of 1.5 

Field Marshal - 1.6

Merfolk Sovereign - .13

Grand Architect - 1.4

Goblin King - N/A

Goblin General- 1.4

Balthor the Stout - .19

Elvish Champion - 2.5

Elvish Archdruid - 1.2

Lord of the Undead- 4

Death Baron - .88

Cemetery Reaper -.95

Captivating Vampire - .9

* for cards with multiple reprints, I took the high of their first Printing.

When to invest in the Fall set (Theros for 2013)

This fall people have asked me several times when to buy Theros cards. I have always answered "between December 15 and New Year". That is still my answer, but let us examine if that is really the truth, using data from the last Three fall sets, as well as considering how the non-existence of Daily and bigger events affect this.

When should you have bought Return to Ravnica cards?

One of my favorite MTGO Finance sites, mtggoldfish.com, has a very useful index function.

Let us look at the index for Return to Ravnica here: http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/RTR

So the bottom prices of RTR were Dec 14 2002, Jan 5, 2013 and Another dip on Feb 9, 2013.

That does reflect well on our hypothesis, but we also need to consider the differences between Theros and RTR. Theros will be drafted all year, first alone, then with Born of the Gods and finally with both Born of the Gods and Journey into Nyx, whereas Return to Ravnica was not drafted at all during Gatecrash.

Let us look at the fall set of 2011 then.

When should you have bought Innistrad cards?
We are only considering the Standard Life span of the cards here, so the real answer ("right after rotation!") is not relevant to our Theros discussion.

Here is the ISD index: http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/ISD

We have the two deepest bottoms at Nov 29, 2011 and Feb 22, 2011 but then ISD drops again (!) and reaches its very lowest Point in May 2012, right around the release of Avacyn Restored.

ISD was also drafted differently. It was drafted with its first small set, DKA, but then it was not drafted at all during Avacyn Restored.

We will need to look at Scars of Mirrodin, which was actually drafted just the way that Theros will be drafted. What did that do the price of rares and mythics from SOM?

When should you have bought Scars of Mirrodin cards?

Once again ignoring the huge effect of rotation, lets have a look at the index: http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/SOM

There is again a valley around Christmas. The very lowest points are Jan 17, 2011 and March 3rd, 2011, but then something strange happens. There is a huge dip! On June 16, 2011, SOM prices are as much as 20% lower than in February. There is also very importantly no significant spike in prices during the first two quarters of the year. The spike comes right when M12 is released.

Goldfish has no data for Zendikar. If anyone knows where to find that data, let me know.

What will be the effect of the non-existence of Premier and Daily events?
All events bigger than 8 players are gone from Magic Online when I write this. This has caused prices to drop. This will probably accentuate the drop around Christmas, making picking up cards in December more attractive than what would have otherwise been the case.

Standard PTQ Season
This year, Standard PTQ Season has been moved. It now runs from December 7, 2013 until March 9, 2014. This probably means that Standard prices will go up as soon as PTQs return to Magic Online and that they will drop more sharply during the second quarter without PTQ support.

The conclusion
It is probably premature to buy into Theros in December and if you can wait until May/June, you should do so.  My suggestion? Buy playsets that you need (I will do so, especially as I advocate Selling Everything from Theros block as early as in March 2015 with the current PTQ season Schedule unchanged) in December and then buy your speculation stock in May/June.