Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Magic Online economy speeding up?

Hi Everyone!

One of my most valuable tools when making decisions about Magic Online is to review prices over time.

When I look at the data and find a conclusion that fits with the data, I find that many decisions turn out similar to similar decisions about different sets. I also find that making predictions for lots of sets over a long period of time makes it easy to compare data and make assumptions using a time series.
A time series is Just the "average" of something with weight applied to the most recent events (Weather companies use it as data in their formula when determining the high and low temperatures).

 I noticed recently (especially M15 and now to a lesser degree Khans of Tarkir assuming Khans has begun it's upward swing) that the low point of set prices seems to happen sooner than before. In the past it was 60 to 75 days from release. It's only been about 45 days from Khans release. 20-25% of the original 60-75 days is statistically significant.

I'm going to look at the new sets as they come out and see what happens to confirm or debunk this observation as real. Until new sets come out to try this on, I'm going to look at the factors that could be causing the increase in speed. I think knowing what behaviors cause things to happen does more than give an interesting fact to impress your friends with, it helps you to understand the factors that impact the Magic Online economy and allow you to truly understand why certain things happen in the economy.

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